With four games left on the schedule, we've reached critical mass for the reigning Stanley Cup champions' playoff aspirations.
Those who predicted a triumphant encore are reevaluating their prognostications as the team underachieves. Those confident that the Blackhawks were cemented into a playoff seed a few weeks back are now running through tiebreaker scenarios.
With a one-point lead over Calgary (and two games in-hand) and a three-point lead over the Dallas Stars entering Chicago's game at Montreal tonight, here are five reasons to be a little worried about the Blackhawks at this stage of the campaign.
1. Patrick Sharp Took the Offense with Him
Sharp, having his best offensive season for the Blackhawks, was expected to be back by the end of the regular season after injuring his left knee. To say they need him back would be an insult to understatement. From the Sun Times:
The Hawks are 3-3 since Sharp was injured March 20 at Phoenix, and they have seen their offensive production drop to two goals per game in the six games without him, down from 3.25 goals per game.
They've been shut out in two of their last three games: To Boston and to Tampa Bay, reinforcing the notion that Chicago doesn't have the weaponry at the moment to counter a solid defensive system.
An update on Sharp's health is expected today. Friday against the Red Wings, perhaps?
2. Specifically, the Secondary Scoring Has Disappeared
The catcalls about the Blackhawks' depth are back in full force, as the grunts aren't picking up the slack for the stars. From Tim Sassone of the Daily Herald on Monday:
The secondary scoring has dried up. Troy Brouwer has no goals in his last 21 games. Bryan Bickell 1 in his last 11. Michael Frolik none in his last 12. Tomas Kopecky 1 in his last nine.
You need a calculator to figure out the last time Jake Dowell, Fernando Pisani or Ryan Johnson scored.
"We're trying and everyone wants to score goals, that's the most fun part of the game," frustrated Hawks captain Jonathan Toews said. "One way or another, I think everyone has to take responsibility. It's not just one or two guys that have got to score the goals in here, it's everybody that can find a way and step up and take advantage of their opportunities.
"If guys in here are thinking that's not their role then they're mistaken. Everyone can chip in that way."
3. Dallas and Calgary Have Layups
The Flames need to finish ahead of the Blackhawks, as Chicago owns their tiebreakers. They have the Edmonton Oilers and a Vancouver Canucks team that will be in full-on rest mode to close out the season, for a maximum of 95 points.
The Dallas Stars also have a rather easy go of it down the stretch: Columbus at home tonight, a home-and-home with the Colorado Avalanche and then at the Minnesota Wild, which could be their toughest game and a potentially epic way to finish the season. They're 1-1-1 with Columbus; 0-1-1 with Colorado; and 3-0 against the Wild.
Meanwhile …
4. The Blackhawks Have To Get Through Detroit
Yes, Chicago won a gutsy 1-goal game against the Wings last week. But now Pavel Datsyuk's back, the Wings are getting healthier overall and they're in a dogfight with the San Jose Sharks for the No. 2 seed in the conference. They'll have something to play for in the final two games of the season, and not just to knock out their arch rivals.
5. The Blackhawks are Overworked
Corey Crawford has started 23 consecutive games for the Blackhawks. Again: COREY CRAWFORD has started 23 consecutive games for the Blackhawks.
Coach Joel Quenneville and his keeper say he's not overextended:
"Preparation is the toughest part for goalies when you're playing consecutive games," Quenneville said. "It's [difficult] trying to find a mental break and prepare for each game in the right fashion. . . . But he's doing everything right, and that's probably the best thing [about his approach]."
Said Crawford: "You have to get the right rest. You have to prepare yourself mentally. It's not easy . . . you just try to stay focused on being prepared and having that mental part of your game ready."
The Blackhawks have eight players averaging over 19 minutes per game, and they're quality minutes: Look at the top shorthanded players in ice time for the Blackhawks; Hossa, Toews, Seabrook, Keith and Campbell are all in the top seven.
Writes Al Cimaglia on Hockey Independent:
This team has too many round pegs in square holes and a head coach that piles on the minutes to the core group. Now Quenneville has little choice, but he has been overworking the same players for the entire season.
On many nights the bottom six forwards don't play very much and when they do their purpose is scattered. Utilizing only a handful of forwards and relying heavily on four defenders isn't a recipe for lasting success.
That's a problem.
The Blackhawks have a vital game tonight in Montreal, facing a Canadiens team that can clinch a playoff spot. Then they're in St. Louis on Wednesday to battle a Blues team they've gone 2-2 against; then it's the home and home with the Red Wings.
So there should be concern, although how much of it depends on Sharp's health and your confidence that, in the end, the Blackhawks stars who carried them to the Cup will be the ones who carry them through the final games of the regular season. (Along with Crawford, their tireless kid goalie, who plays in Montreal for the first time tonight).
They're all critical games, but a win against a Canadiens team that's 2-4 in their last six could alleviate a lot of these concerns.
Of course, Dallas and Calgary could do the Blackhawks' work for them by losing their games. Such is the West this season ...