For months, the Calder Trophy race for rookie of the year has been between a gaggle of talented young goaltenders and two forwards: Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks, who had been the rookie leader in goals, and Jeff Skinner of the Carolina Hurricanes, who has led all rookies in points for a good portion of the season.
With 11 points, eight of them goals, as of Jan. 3, Michael Grabner of the New York Islanders could barely see the starting line of that race. Since then, he's rallied for 37 points in 38 games and has scored 20 goals in 2011 to lead all rookies with 31 overall.
In one stretch, he had points in 15 of 18 games, and hasn't cooled much since then; last night against the Tampa Bay Lightning, he had his third consecutive 2-point game for the Islanders.
So yeah, he's in the race.
In fact, there's a case to be made right now that Grabner, with this three-month surge, has become a frontrunner for the Calder.
The rookie scoring leaders in the NHL as of this morning:
The rookie goaltending leaders as of this morning:
Corey Crawford of the Chicago Blackhawks, Michal Neuvirth of the Washington Capitals and Sergei Bobrovsky of the Philadelphia Flyers (a) will cannibalize each others' votes from the Professional Hockey Writers and (b) don't have the starts or outstanding stats that it takes for a goalie to win the Calder. Steve Mason won it with 61 starts and 33 wins for the Blue Jackets team that wasn't on par with the teams listed above, along with 10 (!) shutouts. Andrew Raycroft had a 2.05 GAA in 55 starts. Evgeni Nabokov had a 2.19 GAA and six shutouts in 65 starts.
Despite the stellar rookie goaltending this season, we could see three forwards nominated at the end of the season. How do they match up?
Stats: Skinner should hang on to lead all rookies in points, which is obviously a remarkable feat for an 18 year old. But Grabner has the inside track for the goal lead; if he goes over 35 by season's end, that's a hell of a campaign. Can Couture win without leading the NHL's rookies in either stat?
Stunning Numbers: Couture's eight game-winning goals are indicative of his value to the Sharks this season, and he could lead all rookie forwards in power-play goals as well. If Skinner can get north of 60 points, that'll be an impressive total for a player that green. Grabner's five shorthanded goals is two away from tying Jordan Staal's NHL record for rookies. That he's a plus-17 on the New York Islanders is, frankly, one of the most stunning stats in the NHL this season.
Storyline: Skinner is a phenom, performing at a level well beyond his years and treated like a rock star at the NHL All-Star Game. Couture, 21, has been the savior, filling a vital secondary scoring role for the San Jose Sharks. Grabner, 23, is the redemption story, unable to latch on with the Vancouver Canucks, traded to the Florida Panthers, unceremoniously placed on waivers after training camp and snatched up by the Islanders.
Here's how Mike Chen of SB Nation handicaps it:
Is it about how you start or how you finish? Couture and Skinner both peaked in the middle of the season, playing at a bit of a bell curve pace.
While all three have done less in March, Grabner has ramped up as the season went on. Also, the quality of linemates has to be factored into play here. Couture has spent time on lines with Olympians like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley, and Joe Pavelski. Skinner has bounced around a bit but he's still spent a good chunk of his time with Eric Staal and/or Tuomo Ruutu.
Grabner's on a very young Islanders team that's spent most of the season in flux while handling a coaching change and a mountain of injuries. You can't go wrong with either of these three players, but if Grabner finishes the last ten-game segment strong, his gradual build might win him the prize in Las Vegas.
We still think Skinner is the favorite; the hype was deafening at the All-Star Game where many of the voters were assembled, and he's still leading the League in points during a time when voting starts to happen.
(There's an element of king-making at play here, too; like a Best New Artist Grammy, the voters like to bestow the honor of future stars with the potential of a Jeff Skinner.)
Grabner's run here in 2011 has put him in the conversation. His goal totals should make him a finalist. But can a stellar rookie on an also-ran team break through months of hype to swipe the trophy?